Fire OblationTier 2
at Ascent Akihabara
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 15.6% | 24 | 14-7-3 | 64.6% | 62.5% | 55.9% | +2.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 10 | 9-1-0 | 90.0% | 78.6% | 77.8% | +12.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.8% | 14 | 8-6-0 | 57.1% | 55.6% | 52.0% | +0.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.6% | 12 | 5-6-1 | 45.8% | 46.9% | 40.5% | -4.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 10 | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 57.1% | 54.9% | +2.2 |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -3.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 8 | 7-1-0 | 87.5% | 75.0% | 71.8% | +10.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 31.2% | -14.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 54.9% | +2.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 8 | 2-6-0 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 30.5% | -9.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.9% | 5 | 0-4-1 | 10.0% | 27.8% | 28.3% | -12.5 |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -2.1 |
| Water Fractal | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.3% | +21.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 52.0% | +1.0 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 36.5% | -10.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 61.9% | +8.9 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 56.1% | +3.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 38.0% | -9.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.0% | +22.5 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 33.2% | -9.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Slimes | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.6% | +21.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 72.5% | +21.6 |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
| Water Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Water Kongming | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.1% | +24.1 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 15 from this event
The 15 public Fire Oblation decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extorting Blackjack | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |